A Tipping Point for Climate Action? Climate Optimism, in 2020 of all Places
In a year that has brought us crisis upon crisis, natural and unnatural, I recently surprised myself with one big optimistic conviction: things are happening in the clean energy transition.
I’ve worked in climate technology throughout my career but I’ve mostly been in the weeds on whatever particular technology I’ve been working on at the time. The last time I had a good 30,000 ft view of climate news was about 10 years ago when I was in graduate school. When mid-2020 found me with some extra time on my hands, I set about refreshing myself.
It’s been quite the decade.
From 2010 to 2019, the percentage of the electricity generated from renewable sources in the US increased from 10% to 17% (EIA). Renewable penetration continues to grow: wind and solar are projected to make up 96.6% of net new capacity additions to the grid in 2020 (Deloitte).
Wind turbine service technician and solar photovoltaic installer are expected to be the 1st and 3rd fastest growing jobs, respectively, in America for 2019-2029 (US Bureau of Labor Statistics) and, overall, clean energy employment has grown 70% faster than total nationwide employment over the past five years (E2).
The price of clean energy has fallen dramatically: looking at the global weighted-average levelized cost of electricity, utility-scale solar photovoltaics costs dropped 82% and onshore wind costs dropped 39% from 2010 to 2019. These clean technologies are now undercutting coal-fired power plants: there are 500 GW of existing coal power plants that would be cheaper to replace with new solar and onshore wind rather than continue to operate (IRENA). Lithium ion battery pack costs also fell 87% from 2010 to 2019 (BloombergNEF).
from IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019 report
I’m not done.
A growing group of corporations are making climate pledges that have teeth to them (Axios). Walmart pledges to zero out operational emissions by 2040. Google plans to have its data centers running on zero-carbon power continuously by 2030. Microsoft is wiping out all of its and its suppliers’ emissions historically going back to the founding of the company (Vox).
Governor Newsom signed an executive order that will phase out new gasoline-powered passenger cars and trucks sold in California by 2035, which will spur state agencies and the private sector to build out zero-emission refueling infrastructure at an accelerated rate (CA.gov).
Part of the reason for my optimism is in seeing the diversity of indicators for movement in the clean energy transition. There is both pull (demand from corporations and consumers for climate action and clean energy) and push (supply of ever-cheaper renewable energy). There are public and private commitments. 24 states and two territories that represent 55% of the US population and 40% of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions have signed on to the US Climate Alliance, which remains committed to the Paris climate agreement (Center for America Progress). There are major investment firms who see fossil fuel divestment as the strategic choice (S&P Global Market Intelligence). To me, this diversity of indicators implies that there are complex and likely entrenched undercurrents to the observable trends. This isn’t just one country’s policies or one corporate titan’s philanthropy or the work of any individual actor that may not represent their peers.
Also note that there are many more-nuanced good headlines that I didn’t mention above. These are developments that have a hopeful side but also a dark underbelly. For example, China recently set a 100% clean electricity goal for 2060. At the same time, they have an epic number of coal plants in planning and under construction. How both sides of this story play out will greatly impact our climate trajectory. Still, there is a victory in witnessing the leader of the highest carbon polluting nation recognize their responsibility to lead on the clean energy transition. There’s lots of tbd-good-news like this: even utility and oil and gas companies (except Exxon apparently) are increasingly setting significant decarbonization goals.
I have to attribute a portion of my optimism to Rewiring America, by Saul Griffith. Griffith makes a case that the future can be more awesome than the present: more equitable, with lots of jobs, more resilient, with all of the comforts afforded to us now. He also describes the herculean effort it will take starting right now to get us to this awesome future. This chapter summary on historical precedents for America tackling big problems put it well:
from Rewiring America by Saul Griffith with Sam Calisch and Laura Fraser
If you’re just catching the stray climate headline, you get a bipolar signal of space-age optimism and panic-triggering gloom. The reality is in between. Would it be much better if we were on track to meeting the Paris Agreement goals? Yes. Does that mean we have nothing to show for ourselves and are starting from zero? No!
Fighting climate change is not a binary prospect. However unpleasant 1.5 C warming is going to be, it will be a walk in the park compared to 2 C warming, and that will be comparably manageable compared to 3 C warming, and so on. Blade Runner seems pretty bleak until you consider Mad Max. We might just be close to a tipping point on climate action - either way, much will change in the next decade. The faster we act, the more of the positive vision for an equitable, clean, affordable future we’ll be able to realize.